Dear Askar Uzakbaevich!
Dear Colleagues!
For your consideration, a refinement of the forecast of macroeconomic indicators and budget parameters for 2020, as well as the draft Presidential Decree is introduced.
“On Amending the Law“ On Guaranteed Transfer from the National Fund for 2020-2022 ”.”
The main factors for updating the forecast are the unstable foreign economic situation, the emerging global recession and a slowdown in business activity against the background of protective measures for the non-proliferation of coronavirus.
Since the beginning of the year, oil prices have declined by 65.7%, metals by an average of 15.6%, and global stock indices have declined by an average of 20.9%. As of April 1 of this year oil quotes fell to $ 22 per barrel.
With this in mind, the average price of oil for April-December this year determined at $ 20 per barrel.
The estimated dollar rate is taken at 440 tenge per dollar and annual inflation in the range of 9-11%.
Amid low prices, the forecast for oil production was reduced by 4 million tons to 86 million tons. This leads to a decrease in mining production.
At the same time, a decrease is expected compared to previously approved growth rates in the manufacturing industry, agriculture, construction and the services sector, including trade.
Exports will decline by $ 16.3 billion to
35.1 billion dollars. Import will decrease by 7.5 billion dollars to 26.6 billion dollars.
Given the above factors, a decline in GDP of 0.9% is expected.
Nominal GDP is estimated at 69.7 trillion. tenge, which is 4.8 trillion. Tenge below the approved forecast.
Based on the adjusted macroeconomic forecast, the forecast of the parameters of the republican budget for 2020 has been clarified.
Revenues of the republican budget excluding transfers in 2020 are estimated at 6,414.1 billion tenge, which is 1,672.3 billion tenge less than the approved plan.
The main decline is expected for VAT, ETP for crude oil and revenues for the use of natural resources.
The revenue side of the budget takes into account all tax incentive and relaxation measures taken to implement the instructions of the Head of State.
A property tax exemption has been established before the end of the year for large shopping facilities, shopping centers, cinemas, theaters, exhibitions and catering facilities, a hotel, hostels, and tourist activities.
Individual entrepreneurs working in accordance with the generally established taxation procedure are exempt from individual income tax for a period up to the end of the year.
In order to support the agricultural sector, agricultural producers will not pay land tax on agricultural land until the end of the year. Import of biological assets of the agricultural sector is also exempted from VAT by the end of the year.
At the same time, the VAT rate was reduced from 12% to 8% for socially significant food products for the period from March 30 to October 1.
It is planned to release small and medium-sized businesses for 6 months until October 1 of this year. from taxes and social payments from the wage fund. (individual income tax, social tax, mandatory pension contributions, contributions and deductions for mandatory health insurance and social contributions).
This measure covers the sectors of tourism, catering, hospitality, large retail facilities, shopping centers, cinemas, theaters, exhibitions and sports and fitness facilities, trade entities, with the exception of the sale of food and drugstores, transportation services, consulting services and information technology.
In terms of tax administration, until June 1, 2020, a delay has been introduced for SMEs on the payment of all taxes and mandatory payments to the budget and social contributions
In addition, for the period of the state of emergency, tax audits and the enforcement of tax, customs and social payments have been suspended.
In general, all the above measures will cover 700 thousand taxpayers.
To cover the expected shortfalls in budget revenues and financing the anti-crisis package of measures, it is proposed to increase the guaranteed transfer from the National Fund by 2020
2 070 billion tenge to 4 770 billion tenge.
As part of the special procedure for clarifying the republican budget, a draft Presidential Decree on amending the Law on Guaranteed Transfer for 2020-2022 has been submitted for your consideration.
In general, republican budget expenditures are forecasted in the amount of 14,270.7 billion tenge with an increase of 1,356.4 billion tenge relative to the approved amount.
The deficit is planned at the level of 3.5% of GDP with an increase of 840.7 billion tenge.
The level of non-oil deficit will be 10.8% of GDP.
Based on the foregoing, I ask you to support the refinement of the macro-indicators forecast for 2020 as part of the Forecast of socio-economic development for 2020-2024 and the draft Decree of the Head of State on the adjustment of the guaranteed transfer.
Thank you for attention.