Introduction
The forecast of socio-economic development of the West Kazakhstan region for 2021-2025 (hereinafter - the Forecast) was developed in accordance with the order of the Minister of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated January 8, 2015 No. 9 "On approval of the Rules and terms for the development of a forecast of socio-economic development." The forecast was developed taking into account the strategic and program documents, the annual message of the Head of State to the people of Kazakhstan, the main directions of the country's development. The forecast contains trends, priorities, target indicators and indicators of socio-economic development of the region for 2021-2025, the main directions of economic, budgetary and investment policy, forecast of the budget parameters of the region for 2021-2023.
1. Trends in the socio-economic development of the regionin 2019 - 2020.External and internal conditions for economic development
West Kazakhstan region is one of the developed industrial and agrarian regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The volume of GRP produced by the region in 2019 amounted to 2,946.4 billion tenge, IFO - 98.5%. The IFO GRP was affected by the decline in indicators for the mining industry. In the production of the republic's GDP, the region's share was 4.2%. In the structure of GRP, the share of production of goods is 55.9%. The main share in the production of the region's GRP is industry (47.5%). The total share of services, which includes trade, transport, communications, education, healthcare and other sectors of the economy that provide services to the population, in the region as a whole is 34.9%. The basis of the industrial complex of the region is the mining industry (about 90% of the total production volume), the development of which depends on the price situation in the world oil markets and an increase in the production of raw materials. In 2019, industrial products were produced for 2392.1 billion tenge, the IFO amounted to 93.1%. As a result of a decrease in the production of gas condensate by 7.4%, natural gas - by 1.5%, the volume of production in the mining industry decreased by 6.8% due to the low productivity of wells due to the increased water content in the reservoirs, a shutdown at the planned - preventive maintenance of the Karachaganak processing complex, complex gas treatment unit. The volume of production in the manufacturing industry decreased by 9.2% (215.4 billion tenge). There is a decrease in the production of petroleum products - by 35.1%, other non-metallic mineral products - by 12.0%. In the second five-year plan of the SPIID in the region, 36 projects for 93.9 billion tenge were implemented with the creation of 1,497 jobs.In 2019, 5 projects were implemented worth 2.9 billion tenge with the creation of 78 jobs. Within the framework of the state program for the development of the agro-industrial complex in 2019, 15.8 billion tenge is allocated from the budget to support agriculture, including 0.3 billion tenge in the crop production sector, 5.4 billion tenge in livestock production, subsidies for investment investments - 3.9 billion tenge, for productive employment and mass entrepreneurship - 4.7 billion tenge, for other events - 1.5 billion tenge. In 2019, agricultural producers of the region received credit resources in the amount of 19.7 billion tenge to finance agriculture. 813 units of agricultural machinery and equipment were leased for the amount of 4.7 billion tenge. The volume of gross agricultural output amounted to 171.3 billion tenge, which is 6.5% more than in 2018, including crop production by 62.8 million tenge (13.5% more), livestock - 107, 8 billion tenge (2.6% more). In 2019, the total sown area of agricultural crops in the region amounted to 522.6 thousand hectares (including the area of grain crops - 251.4 thousand hectares), which is 5.5 thousand hectares or 1.1% more than in 2018 (grain crops - 25.6 thousand hectares less). Harvested 242.2 thousand tons of grain (in weight after processing) or 141.4% to the level of 2018, 82.8 thousand tons of oilseeds (191.2%), 64.5 thousand tons of potatoes (100.2% ), vegetables - 58.5 thousand tons (101.1%), melons - 26.5 thousand tons (107.4%). Meat (in live weight) produced 96.9 thousand tons or 104.6% to the level of 2018, milk - 236.5 thousand tons (100.8%), eggs - 181.7 million pieces (105.3 %).In 2019, 4,725.5 tons of meat and meat products were exported, the plan is 157.5% fulfilled. At the same time, 1,313.1 tons of mutton were exported, which is 1.6 times more than the annual plan. In the region, 14 feedlots are registered, equipped with the necessary infrastructure, the capacity of each site is 400 or more heads, with a total capacity of 27.1 thousand heads.The number of operating small and medium-sized businesses as of January 1, 2020 amounted to 42.8 thousand units or 106.8% by 2018. Small and medium-sized businesses employ 35.7% (120.6 thousand people) of the total economically active population. In 2019, small and medium-sized businesses produced goods (works and services) for 1,628.6 billion tenge, or 102.4% by 2018. In 2019, 1.8 billion tenge was allocated for the implementation of the State Program "Business Road Map 2020". To subsidize the interest rate on loans, 145 projects were supported for the amount of loans of 19.4 billion tenge.Within the framework of short-term training courses in the basics of entrepreneurship "Business Adviser", 3,755 people were trained. Within the framework of the State Program of Productive Employment and Mass Entrepreneurship for 2017-2021 "Enbek", 597.3 million tenge were allocated for lending in cities and monotowns. In 2019, 3170 people studied under the Bastau Business project. The volume of retail trade increased by 1.1% and amounted to 313.8 billion tenge. In December 2019, the inflation rate (against December 2018) was 105.3%. The main impact on inflation was the rise in prices for food and non-food products, which increased by 9.4% and 4.8%. The rise in prices for paid services amounted to 100.9%. The volume of cargo turnover in the region increased by 13.7% and amounted to 3520.4 million tons / km, the volume of passenger traffic - by 1.0% (9091.0 million l / km). In 2019, investments in the region's economy amounted to 586.3 billion tenge, or an increase of 24.9%. The positive dynamics of investment is noted in agriculture by 2.0 times, industry - by 38.0%, information and communications - by 5.3 times, real estate transactions - by 13.2%. 3 projects with foreign participation were implemented for a total amount of 303 billion tenge. The volume of completed construction work increased by 26.5% due to housing construction and infrastructure development and amounted to 174.7 billion tenge. In 2019, within the framework of the Nurly Zher program, 13.2 billion tenge were allocated for housing construction, and 2.8 billion tenge for IKI facilities. 485.0 thousand sq. meters of housing, an increase of 12.2%. Including at the expense of the population - 319.4 thousand square meters. meters of housing, at the expense of budgetary funds - 85.6 thousand square meters. meters of housing (6 multi-apartment residential buildings (797 apartments) and 49 houses in the countryside (283 apartments) were commissioned, at the expense of enterprises - 79.9 thousand square meters of commercial housing.
The infrastructure complex is being purposefully developed. In the field of education, in 2019, the construction of a health camp for 48 places was completed in the village. Sary Omir, Terekta region, construction of 2 schools has begun (for 300 places with a boarding school for 100 places in the village of Chapaevo, Akzhaik region, for 900 places in Uralsk), 9 private kindergartens for 567 places have been opened. A qualitative indicator of preschool education is 100% coverage of children from 3 to 6 years old with the services of preschool organizations. In order to improve the material and technical base of medical organizations, 73 units of medical equipment, 32 units of sanitary vehicles were purchased, capital repairs of 19 health facilities were carried out. Under the PPP mechanism, 3 projects have been implemented: renting a canteen with overhaul for a regional multidisciplinary hospital, leasing a computer tomograph for the Akzhaik regional hospital, and an angiograph for a city multidisciplinary hospital. In order to develop the sports infrastructure, the construction of a specialized boarding school for gifted children in sports was completed in Derkul village, 52 sports grounds were built, 31 sports grounds were overhauled in Uralsk, the construction of sports and recreation complexes in the Zhangala village of the Zhangalinsky district and Zhanibek village, Zhanibek district.
In order to improve the quality of life of the population in the countryside, work is being carried out on water supply and gas disposal. In 2019, 4.6 billion tenge were allocated for the construction and reconstruction of 29 water supply facilities in 40 SNPs. 17 facilities were put into operation in 22 SNPs. As of January 1, 2020, access to centralized water supply is 217 RSs (out of 433 RSs) or 50.1% or 86.5% of the rural population. 321 SNPs of the region or 74.1% were supplied with gas. The provision of the region's population with gas is 96.1%. Implemented 2 gasification projects in 9 SNPs. For these purposes, about 1.1 billion tenge was allocated.Problematic issues on improving the condition of the regional highways are being resolved. In 2019, from all sources of financing for a total of 27.3 billion tenge, work was carried out on the construction, reconstruction and repair of 368.4 km of roads. In 2019, within the framework of the Nurly Zhol program, 1.5 km of heat supply networks and 7.9 km of water supply networks were repaired in the amount of 1.3 billion tenge (transferring objects). Under the Regional Development Program until 2020, in 2019, 21.7 km of water supply networks were built and 1.8 km of sewage networks were reconstructed in Uralsk. Under the project "Auyl - El besigі" 1.2 billion tenge was allocated from the republican budget, which are directed to the development of 3 regional centers - Chapaevo, Taskala, Fedorovka. Major overhaul of 3 schools, 1 sports school, 8.3 km of intra-village roads, street lighting was carried out. The situation in the social sphere remains stable. As of January 1, 2020, the number of unemployed registered with the employment service amounted to 4,715 people, the share of registered unemployed in the economically active population is 1.4%. The unemployment rate was 4.8%, down 0.1 percentage points from the 2018 level. In 2019, 20,920 people were employed, which is 20.0% higher than in 2018.The average monthly salary in 2019 was 183,914 tenge, which is 19.6% more than the corresponding period of 2018 (real - 113.6%). In 2020, international financial institutions mark the emerging global recession and low business activity amid protective measures against the coronavirus. There is a decrease in prices for basic commodities. In order to minimize the negative consequences of external factors, a number of comprehensive measures are being taken: tax incentives, support for SMEs and the agro-industrial complex, as well as measures to ensure employment.
The revenue side of the budget takes into account all the measures for tax incentives and relaxation, taken in the implementation of the instructions of the Head of State.
Property tax exemption has been established until the end of the year for large retail facilities, shopping and entertainment centers, cinemas, theaters, exhibitions and catering facilities, hotel and tourism activities.
Individual entrepreneurs working in accordance with the generally established taxation procedure are exempt from individual income tax for a period until the end of the year.
In order to support the agro-industrial complex, agricultural producers will not pay land tax on agricultural land until the end of the year. Import of biological assets of the agro-industrial complex is also exempt from VAT until the end of the year.
At the same time, the VAT rate has been reduced from 12% to 8% for socially significant food products for the period from March 30 to October 1, 2020.
Provides for the exemption of small and medium-sized businesses for 6 months until October 1 from taxes and social payments from the payment fund (personal income tax, personal income tax, contributions and deductions for compulsory health insurance and social security contributions). This measure covers the industries of tourism, catering, hotel business, large shopping facilities, etc.
In terms of tax administration, until June 1, 2020, a deferral for the payment of all taxes and mandatory payments to the budget and social contributions has been introduced for SMEs.
The expected forecast of the implementation of the annual revenue plan, taking into account the decline in world oil prices and budget losses due to tax exemptions, within the framework of measures to support entrepreneurship and domestic production will amount to about 102.3 billion tenge, or 104.5% of the revised plan , 112.4% - to the fact of 2019. The annual revised revenue plan for 2020 is 97.9 billion tenge. The expected overfulfillment of the plan will be about 4.4 billion tenge.
To mitigate the consequences of external challenges, a package of anti-crisis measures for 57 billion tenge is being implemented, aimed at supporting small and medium-sized businesses, the agro-industrial complex, developing infrastructure, providing employment, as well as preventing a decrease in the population's income: for the implementation of DKZ - 35.5 billion tenge, DKB - 1.9 billion tenge, "Auyl-El besigi" - 3.0 billion tenge, for subsidizing the agro-industrial complex - 4.2 billion tenge, for activities of the productive employment program "Enbek" - 1.5 billion tenge, for payment of TSA - 0.5 billion tenge, to compensate for losses in connection with a decrease in the tax burden - 7.1 billion tenge, to replenish the stabilization fund - 200.0 million tenge, to reimburse public utilities payments - 1.5 billion tenge, social expenses - 1.5 billion tenge.
In 2020, within the framework of the Nurlyzher housing construction program, it is planned to build 21 multi-apartment residential buildings and 139 residential buildings in the countryside, 20 IKI projects. By the end of the year, it is planned to put into operation 10 apartment buildings (1607 apartments) and 89 residential buildings in the countryside (225 apartments), 15 IKI projects. Including 1 Moscow Railway (180 apartments) in Uralsk, 1 residential building in Syrymsky district (36 apartments), 1 IKI project (Bokeiordinsky district) were commissioned.
In 2020, it is planned to repair 434.2 km of roads, 24 water supply projects are being implemented in 32 RSs (of which 7 projects were put into operation in 13 RSs), 3 gas supply projects covering 14 RSs, work is underway to reconstruct 2 heat supply projects and 2 projects for sewerage in Uralsk.
In the social sphere, 5 schools are under construction (for 300 places with a boarding school for 100 places in the village of Chapaevo, Akzhaik district, for 600 places in the village of Kaztalovka, No. 51 for 900 places, No. 33 for 300 places in Uralsk, for 60 places in Sarykudyk village of Kaztalovskiy district), construction of 1 school has begun (No. 52 for 900 places in Uralsk).
At the expense of foreign investments, the construction of a secondary school for 450 students in Uralsk, 1 sports and recreation center in the village of Zhangala has been completed, 8 sports and recreation complexes are being built (village Zhanibek, Chapaevo, Saykhin, Chingirlau, Zhalpaktal, Podstepnoe, Kaztalovka, Taskala ), the reconstruction of the overpass has been completed, the terminal of the international airport in Uralsk is being reconstructed.
Within the framework of the special project "Auyl - El besigi" from the republican budget, 4.6 billion tenge is provided, 13 projects are being implemented in 5 SNPs: overhaul of 4 schools (village Taskala, Saykhin, Yanaikino, Kalininskoe), 1 SDK ( Taskala village), 48 km of roads (village Peremetnoye, Taskala, Saykhin), as well as water supply network (village Peremetnoye, Kalininskoye). Of these, the overhaul of the water supply network in the village of Kalininskoye has been completed.
Within the framework of the Employment Roadmap, it is planned to implement 172 projects for reconstruction, capital, current repair of education, health care, culture, sports, highways, housing and communal services, improvement of settlements for a total amount of 32.2 billion tenge. Work has begun at 167 objects, 5505 jobs have been created, of which 2528 people have been employed through employment centers.
8.9 billion tenge is provided to support entrepreneurship (under the DCS - 3.7 billion tenge, under the "Enbek" program - 5.2 billion tenge). As of today, 100 subsidy agreements have been signed under the DCS for the amount of 5.6 billion tenge loans. Under the Enbek program, 431 microcredits were issued for 1.6 billion tenge.
Under the program "Economy of Simple Things", 216 projects were approved for a total amount of loans of 15.6 billion tenge.
The region's economy is mainly associated with the development of the mining industry, which accounts for 90% of industrial production. In turn, the volume of production in this industry depends on the price situation in the world oil markets and the volume of raw materials production.
The forecast for 2020 for the mining industry is 101.5%.
In the manufacturing industry, there is a decrease in production in the mechanical engineering and metallurgical industries, which is due to a decrease in demand from customers in the Russian Federation due to restrictive measures during a pandemic. Taking into account the problems in the import of raw materials due to the deterioration of the situation related to the coronavirus in the Russian Federation, the IFO of the manufacturing industry will decrease by 0.5%.
In the agricultural sector, according to the assessment of 2020, the volume of gross agricultural production is projected at 102.6% compared to 2019.
According to the 2020 estimate, investment in the economy in fixed assets will amount to 450.0 billion tenge, or a 23% decrease. The decrease in investment is due to a decrease in the costs of KPO b.v. for the implementation of large projects: expansion of the Karachaganak field (stage-1), removal of production restrictions on KPC gas, installation of the 4th gas re-injection compressor (cost optimization due to lower energy prices), as well as the commissioning in 2019 of a large plant project complex gas treatment (UKPG-3) of Zhaikmunai LLP.
The volume of construction work in 2020 is expected at 101.5%.
Against the backdrop of quarantine restrictions, retail trade is expected to decline by 4.3% and transport by 27%.
for 2021-2025
Social and economic policy in 2021 - 2025 will follow the principles of policy continuity in order to achieve long-term goals to improve the well-being of the population and ensure sustainable economic growth within the framework of the implementation of the Strategy "Kazakhstan - 2050" and the Strategic Plan 2025.
The main tasks for this period are to increase the stability of our economy while lowering prices for natural resources.
The main goal of the socio-economic policy in the medium term is to continue the implementation of the new course of development of the Republic of Kazakhstan, to ensure effective and high-quality growth of the economy due to stable growth rates of income, investment in production and human capital.
The priority directions of the regional economic policy will be:
creation of competitive industries, expansion of the range and increase in the share of deep processing products with high added value, attracting small and medium-sized businesses;
modernization of existing enterprises in order to reduce the resource and energy intensity and the introduction of modern management technologies in order to increase labor productivity;
Carrying out work on the introduction of modern technologies and progressive methods of farming into production, contributing to the sustainable growth of crop production;
optimization of the structure of sown areas and crop rotations in order to increase the productivity of agricultural land;
organization of medium and large-scale livestock production;
development of transport, social infrastructure, water supply and gasification of settlements;
improving the quality of education and health services;
increasing employment of the population;
containment of consumer prices.
3.1. Fiscal policy
The main goal of fiscal policy in the medium term will be to increase the competitiveness of the region's economy in conjunction with an increase in the level and quality of life of the region's population.
The achievement of this goal will be facilitated by the solution of the following main tasks:
taking measures to optimize budget expenditures and introduce modern methods of budget planning;
financial support of ongoing social reforms, development of education, healthcare and other priority areas of activity;
ensuring transparency of the process of forming and executing the budget;
diversification of sectors of the economy, with the direction of budgetary funds in conjunction with the program documents of the region for priority sectors;
improving the quality of public services provided.
expanding the tax base and improving tax administration;
concentration of budgetary expenditures on priority areas of social and economic development;
increasing the efficiency of the use of budgetary funds;
improvement of interbudgetary relations, with the establishment of a clear and effective delineation of revenue and expenditure powers between different levels of the budget system.
Work on improving taxation will continue. The main focus will be on stimulating the business climate, attracting investment and simplifying tax administration.
3.2. Curbing inflation
Ensuring macroeconomic and financial stability will be carried out by taking measures to reduce inflation from 8-8.5% in 2020 to 4.0-5.0% in the medium term.
External and internal factors influencing changes in prices in the consumer market will be promptly monitored. In order to create conditions for the development of competitive domestic markets, fight against price collusion and unfair competition, measures will be taken to contain prices for food products and fuel.
To regulate the food market and prevent speculative and unjustified price increases, as well as smoothing seasonal fluctuations, work will continue on the formation and use of a regional stabilization fund for food products.
Particular attention will be paid to reducing prices for socially important goods. In order to stabilize prices in the food market on weekends on a weekly basis in the regional center, in regional centers and large settlements, the practice of holding agricultural fairs and providing trade places will continue.3.3. Развитие отраслей экономики
Industry
In industry, the main priority area is the development of the manufacturing industry, an increase in the share of non-resource sectors of the economy oriented to domestic demand and export.
This goal will be achieved by increasing the competitiveness of domestic products in the non-resource sector of the economy, introducing new technologies and attracting direct investment.
In the oil and gas industry, it is planned to implement 3 large projects for the construction / modernization of production facilities of KPO b.v .:
- a project to remove production restrictions on gas at the KPC (SPOG). The project will allow processing additional volumes of raw gas up to 4 billion cubic meters per year, which will be used for re-injection into the reservoir to maximize the level of production of liquid hydrocarbons, an additional increase in gas production will amount to about 10 million tons;
- project of the 4th gas re-injection compressor (4KOZG) - improvement of liquid hydrocarbons production through increased use of CPC facilities, increase in CPC gas treatment capacity, optimized well management;
- Karachaganak expansion project (Stage-1). Within the framework of the project, it is planned to build a gathering system, build an additional gas treatment and re-injection unit, drill and connect new gas re-injection wells, etc.
In 2021-2025, it is planned to implement 177 investment projects with the creation of more than 5 thousand new jobs, including:
- construction of a greenhouse complex for growing tomatoes and cucumbers with a capacity of 4400 tons of cucumbers, 3450 tons of tomato;
- construction of a plant for the production of semi-trailers with a capacity of 200 units per year.
- expansion and renovation of shipbuilding production of small boats, capacity 3 units. technicians at 4 years old (Uralsk);
- construction of an asphalt concrete plant with a capacity of 135 thousand tons per year (Burlinsky district);
- creation of a new industrial zone with further giving the status of a FEZ on an area of 281 hectares (Terektinsky district);
- construction of a plant for growing barramundi and clary catfish in closed water supply units with a capacity of 3.0 thousand tons of marketable fish per year (Baiterek district);
- construction of a plant for the production of methanol with a capacity of 50.0 thousand tons of methanol and 135.0 thousand tons of gasoline per year (Bayterek district);
- construction of a trade and transport and logistics center on an area of 12 hectares (Uralsk).
In addition, it is planned to localize at least 3 production facilities jointly with world manufacturers of original oil and gas equipment (OEM), modernize 10 operating enterprises by obtaining international quality standards in order to further produce high-tech and competitive types of products (JSC West Kazakhstan Machine-Building Company, JSC Scientific Research Institute Gidropribor, JSC Ural Plant Zenit, LLP Kvant, LLP Topan, JSC Uralskagroremmash, LLP Ural Transformer Plant, JSC Zhelayevsky Kombinat Kleboproduktov, LLP Kubley, LLP Uralskaya poultry farm ").
The Finnish-Kazakhstani consortium at the Uralsk landfill has implemented the 1st stage of the project of a solid waste management system (collection and sorting of waste), the 2nd stage, which provides for the processing of secondary raw materials, is planned in 2021.
In the electric power industry for the period from 2021 to 2025, it is planned to generate about 10.5 billion kWh of electricity, heat energy - 15.7 million Gcal.
The main goal in the long term is to create conditions for expanding and strengthening the positions of small and medium-sized businesses.
Support for business initiatives, industry support and strengthening of entrepreneurial potential will be implemented within the framework of the business support and development programs "Business Road Map 2025", "Economy of Simple Things".
Within the framework of the Program for the Development of Productive Employment and Mass Entrepreneurship "Enbek", the provision of preferential microcredits without industry restrictions up to 16 million tenge at a remuneration rate of up to 6% will continue. In order to solve the problem of collateral, guaranteeing microcredits will continue.
Agriculture
The development of agriculture in the region in 2021-2025 will be aimed at increasing labor productivity, ensuring food security and increasing export potential. The growth in the volume of state support will create the necessary conditions for the stable development of agriculture.
The main priorities in crop production are the production of grain and oilseeds, vegetables and potatoes on irrigated lands, in animal husbandry - the production of meat, milk, eggs, fodder crops.
With a view to sustainable development of crop production, diversification of production will continue towards an increase in winter grains and oilseeds. The volume of production of forage crops for the needs of animal husbandry will be increased.
An increase in the yield of agricultural crops will be achieved by switching to a zonal farming system adapted to the arid conditions of the region, introducing moisture and resource-saving technologies, drip irrigation into production, using seeds of high reproductions of new high-yield varieties, and scientifically grounded crop rotations.
The budgetary policy in the crop production sector will be aimed at subsidizing the costs of purchasing mineral fertilizers and herbicides, reducing the cost of the cost of delivering irrigation water to agricultural producers, supporting seed production, taking measures to combat pests of agricultural crops, in animal husbandry - at increasing the productivity and quality of livestock products, providing for subsidizing the production of beef, lamb, pork, horse meat, milk, koumiss, support for livestock breeding, in particular, the procurement of roughage.
In order to develop the industry and return costs to the subjects of the agro-industrial complex with investment investments, a program of subsidizing investment investments is in place.
In agriculture, it is planned to implement 33 investment projects, including construction and commissioning:
- a dairy complex for up to 1500 head of cattle (meat and dairy breed) with milk production up to 25 tons per day (Terekty district);
- 2 greenhouse complexes with a total area of 72 hectares (Uralsk, Terektinsky district);
- vegetable storehouses for 2.4 thousand tons (Terekty district);
- a reproducer for breeding Romanov sheep up to 5 thousand heads and up to 40 thousand heads of sheep (Syrymsky district);
- 27 feedlots with a total capacity of 54.0 thousand head of cattle in all regions.
It is planned to increase the production of poultry meat by using the capacities of Zhaiykkus LLP from 7.0 thousand tons to 14.0 thousand tons of poultry meat in the Baiterek region.
In accordance with the plan for the export of beef meat in 2021-2025, it is planned to export about 20 thousand tons of beef meat.
Increase in labor productivity in the agro-industrial complex due to digitalization by 20% by 2025:
the use of unmanned aerial vehicles and electric shepherd systems in 6 farms;
building a smart dairy farm;
purchase of the KEYS seeding complex;
completion of work on the digitization of pastures with an area of 5.1 thousand hectares, hayfields - 411.2 thousand hectares and perennial plantations - 1.8 thousand hectares;
creation of 154 smart farms in livestock, 64 advanced and 1 digital farm in crop production;
purchase of more than 5 thousand units of agricultural machinery and equipment using digitalization elements;
chipping of livestock, introduction of sensors for measuring fuel consumption, differentiated application of seeds and fertilizers, the use of an automated drinker with a motion sensor, etc.
Expansion of the area of irrigated areas from 56 thousand hectares to 85.0 thousand hectares (reconstruction of the Zhaksybay system of estuary irrigation in the Karatobinsky region, reconstruction of the Mamay system of estuary irrigation, the Sakryl system of estuary irrigation in Kaztalovsky district).
Tourism
Within the framework of the State Program for the Development of the Tourism Industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2019 - 2025. further development of domestic and inbound tourism is planned.
In 2021-2023, it is planned to put into operation 3 international hotels, worth 14.5 billion tenge:
- construction of a hotel in Uralsk under the international HILTON franchise for 125 rooms, with the creation of 200 new jobs. The cost is 4.1 billion tenge, the project implementation period is 2021-2022.
- construction of a modern hotel in Uralsk under the international NOVOTEL franchise with the creation of 60 new jobs for 94 rooms. The cost is 6.5 billion tenge, the project implementation period is 2022.
- Construction of a hotel in the city of Aksay, Burlinsky district, under the international franchise Intercontinental Hotel Group - Holiday Inn for 108 rooms, with the creation of 45 new jobs. The cost is 3.9 billion tenge, the project implementation period is 2021.
It is planned to modernize the "Interactive 3D map of tourist sites and sacred places of the West Kazakhstan region" within the framework of the "Rukhani zhagyru" program, the implementation of tourist routes, the development of virtual tours using 3D modeling.
Building
In the medium term, the main efforts will be aimed at increasing the affordability of housing for the population within the framework of the Nurly Zher housing construction program and the 7-20-25 mortgage program, the main directions of which are increasing the availability of mortgage lending, stimulating housing construction by private developers, housing construction through the system of housing savings, individual housing construction.
From all sources of financing, it is planned to commission more than 480 thousand square meters. meters of housing annually. At the expense of budget funds, it is planned to put into operation 37 multi-apartment residential buildings and 299 residential buildings in the SNP (303 thousand square meters or about 5.7 thousand apartments).
The work on gasification of rural settlements will continue. In 2021-2025, it is planned to gasify the SNP of the Kaztalovsky, Terekty regions and the Baiterek region. As a result, the level of gas supply for the population will be 99%.
A step-by-step solution to the issues of water supply for the region's population is planned. So, until 2025, it is planned to build water supply facilities in 59 villages, reconstruct water supply networks in 23 villages, and install complex block modules in 73 villages.
As a result, 59 villages with a population of 23.8 thousand people will be covered by centralized water supply. Complex block modules will be installed in 73 villages with a population of 10.9 thousand people. Water supply to the rural population by the end of 2025 will reach 100%.
In 2021-2025, in the social sphere, the construction of 21 general education schools, 5 polyclinics, 3 buildings for hospitals in Uralsk is required.
In housing and communal services, it is planned to reconstruct 17 km of sewerage networks, 36 km of water supply networks, 20 km of heat supply networks.
Transport
The condition of highways remains a critical factor for the development of the transport industry, 69% of which are in an unsatisfactory condition. The priority direction in the transport industry is to bring the main parameters of highways and artificial structures on them to the standard state and to ensure stable transport links with the settlements of the region.
Repair work will continue on the highways of republican significance "Chapaevo-Zhalpaktal-Kaztalovka-gr. RF", "Kaztalovka-Zhanibek-gr. RF", "Unige-Bisen-Saykhin". The implementation of these projects will make it possible to connect three regional centers (Kaztalovka, Zhanibek, Saykhin) with the regional center with asphalt-concrete roads with further access to the border with the Russian Federation (Volgograd, Saratov regions).
For 2021-2025, it is planned to gradually improve the quality of regional and district roads:
in 2021, repair of 142.5 km of roads, including regional - 117.5 km and district - 25 km;
in 2022, repair of 223.5 km of roads, including regional - 147.5 km and regional - 76 km;
in 2023, repair of 126 km of roads, including regional - 90 km and regional - 36 km;
in 2024, repair of 167 km of roads, including regional - 55 km and regional - 112 km;
in 2025, repair of 141 km of roads, including regional - 42 km and district - 99 km.
In 2021-2025 in the region, it is planned to implement large projects for the reconstruction of roads in the following directions: "Barbastau-Akzhaik-Inder", "Burlin-Aksai-Zhympity", "Chapaevo-Zhangala-Saykhin", "RF border-Zhalpaktal-Zhuldyz- Karasu ".
By 2025, it is planned to increase the share of local roads that are in good and satisfactory condition to 50%.
To date, there is a positive conclusion of the state expertise for the project "Construction of an automobile bridge across the Ural river in the area of Chapaevo village, Akzhaik district, West Kazakhstan region."
According to calculations, the construction of the bridge will reduce the length of the path by about 1,000 km, which would simplify the delivery of goods to the Caucasian and Transcaucasian republics, Stavropol and Krasnodar regions, as well as to the south of the European continent. In addition, the organization of this route is of great social importance for the population living along the route, it is: the opening of new jobs, the creation of roadside service facilities and infrastructure.
SEC "Oral" together with "International Airport" Oral "LLP is implementing the project" Reconstruction and modernization of the international airport of the city of Uralsk ". The construction is financed within the framework of social investment projects of the KPO bv company. The technical parameters of the project include an increase in the terminal's throughput up to 400 passengers / hour, an increase in passenger traffic up to 320 thousand people / year.
By 2025, it is planned to start flights on local air lines to the regional centers of Saykhin, Zhanibek and Kaztalovka. At present, a feasibility study for the construction of airfields has been developed.
Communication
Measures to develop the IT infrastructure will become the basis of the digital economy for the development of online commerce, electronic services, digital television and mobile Internet, which will lead to increased labor productivity and improved logistics across Kazakhstan.
The main efforts will be aimed at increasing the number of mobile broadband Internet subscribers through the development of mobile services using 4G and 5G technologies.
In order to reduce the digital inequality of the village, as well as for the residents of the village to receive electronic public services, a high speed of access to the Internet in rural settlements will be provided within the framework of the project "Construction of fiber-optic communication lines in rural settlements of the Republic of Kazakhstan".
To improve the conditions for doing business, work will continue to optimize the processes of providing public services, reduce the time frame and list of documents, eliminate duplicate procedures and transfer them completely into electronic format.
Trade
In the medium term, the development of domestic trade will be carried out within the framework of the implementation of legislation on the regulation of trade activities.
In order to increase the domestic trade turnover, the commissioning of retail facilities and the transition to modern trade formats will continue.
In 2022-2023, it is planned to commission 2 shopping centers with a total area of 12.3 thousand square meters (Uralsk), open the covered market "Ashyk Zhol" with a total area of 3.5 thousand square meters (Uralsk ).
Until 2025, the phased modernization of 3 trade markets Mirlan, Altyn-Alma, and Golden Chalice will continue.
On the site of the Sultan market, a residential building is under construction, with a retail space on the 1st floor. The total area of the project is 720 sq.m.
A phased transition to trade in stationary shopping facilities will be carried out.
3.4. Improving the business climate and investment attractiveness
The investment policy will be based on private investments, regional investment projects, economic cooperation with foreign countries.
The policy to improve the business climate is aimed at creating favorable conditions for attracting investment, increasing the level of protection of investors' rights, improving trade logistics and developing value-added relations between foreign investors and local companies, improving institutional mechanisms for attracting, supporting and supporting investors, attracting investments in public-private partnership projects.
In 2020, 5 meetings of the Investors Council were held, at which 18 projects were supported for a total of 45.6 billion tenge.
Since July 2020, the Government for Business project has been launched, where more than 50 government services are provided to open and support businesses.
A pool of 66 investment projects with a total value of 2.5 trillion tenge has been formed, of which 395 billion tenge is planned to be spent in 2020, 452 billion tenge in 2021, 381 billion tenge in 2022, and 228 billion tenge in 2023. . tenge, in 2024 - 142 billion tenge.
Work will continue to enhance the implementation of PPP mechanisms.
There are 20 PPP projects at different stages of implementation, including:
- contracts were concluded for 13 projects (the purchase of 3 medical equipment (MRI, CT, angiograph), the construction and operation of a medical outpatient clinic, the lease of the canteen of a medical institution, maintenance of regional roads, the creation of an intelligent system of photo-video fixation and video surveillance in the Bayterek area ). The total amount of state obligations paid from the local budget according to agreements is 3.4 billion tenge.
- 7 projects in the field of education. The period of contracts is from 2020 to 2028 (trust management of school canteens with maintenance and replacement of equipment in secondary educational schools in the city of Uralsk). These projects are being implemented without any payment of state obligations.
- 7 projects are at the planning stage and competitive procedures (lease of premises for placement and provision of guaranteed medical care for cancer patients on a radiation therapy machine to the regional oncological dispensary, construction, commissioning and maintenance of a boiler room for a regional multidisciplinary hospital ", transfer to the trust management of the GKP at the PHV "City polyclinic No. 1, No. 5" without the right of redemption, supply and maintenance of computer equipment to schools in Uralsk, equipment and maintenance of the furniture fund of an educational institution in Uralsk, installation and maintenance of 30 controlled, 60 stationary video cameras, 7 automatic speed recording systems, intelligent video surveillance system SuncarSmartCity in Chapaevo village, Akzhaik district).
3.5. Improving human capital
In the field of education, special emphasis will be placed on ensuring the availability and improving the quality of education within the framework of the State Program for the Development of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2025. The program provides for the modernization of teacher education, professional support for teachers and changes in the management system in education.
In the system of preschool education and training, the expansion of infrastructure will continue through the construction and opening of public and private kindergartens, mini-centers, and the development of a public-private partnership mechanism.
In the system of preschool education and training, it is planned to maintain 100% coverage of children from 3 to 6 years of age with preschool education.
Work will continue on further strengthening the material and technical base (equipping the subject classrooms of secondary and basic schools, purchasing sports equipment, technological equipment), carrying out major repairs, and building educational organizations. In the medium term, it is necessary to build 21 secondary schools, taking into account the elimination of accidents, the reduction of three-shift education, natural population growth (in Uralsk - 10 schools, in districts - 11 schools). Overhaul of 32 educational facilities.
In the system of technical and vocational education, the state-guaranteed receipt of the first working profession will be provided free of charge, including through course training for all comers on the basis of training centers and colleges.
In order to improve the quality of education, the implementation of the basic principles of dual education and employment of TVE graduates will continue to 75% by 2025 by improving the quality of personnel training and introducing the principles of dual education.
The increase in teachers' salaries by 25% will continue until 2024.
The main priority in health care is the development of primary health care. The main tasks in the healthcare industry will be a significant strengthening of preventive medicine and social orientation of healthcare, ensuring the provision of high-quality and affordable medical services.
To this end, the effectiveness of intersectoral and interdepartmental interaction on public health issues will be increased, preventive measures, screening studies will be strengthened, diagnosis, treatment and rehabilitation of major socially significant diseases, and the development of e-health will be improved.
In the field of healthcare, work will also be aimed at developing healthcare infrastructure on the basis of public-private partnerships, informatization of healthcare, equipping the material and technical base, and introducing smart medicine.
The above measures will help to reduce maternal, infant and general mortality and increase life expectancy.
In order to attract personnel, the conclusion of Memorandums with medical universities of the Republic of Kazakhstan will continue, the provision of social support for young professionals who have arrived to work in rural areas, the provision of grants for school graduates, graduates of medical universities (residency) at the expense of the local budget.
In 2021-2025, it is necessary to build 5 polyclinics (Zachagansk, Derkul, Zhuldyz microdistrict, Akzhayik microdistrict, Fedorovka village, Terekty district), 3 buildings for hospitals in Uralsk.
Providing sustainable and productive employment, reducing and preventing the growth of unemployment will continue through the implementation of the Program for the Development of Productive Employment and Mass Entrepreneurship for 2017-2021 "Enbek". Within the framework of this program, financing of activities for the training of personnel with technical and vocational education, short-term vocational training of workers in specialties in demand in the labor market, training in the basics of entrepreneurship, the provision of microcredits to promote the development of entrepreneurship, the creation of social jobs, the organization of youth practice will continue. The development of the labor market infrastructure will continue: employment of the unemployed through the electronic labor exchange and private employment agencies.
In addition, an Employment Roadmap has been launched to ensure employment during a pandemic.
The effective implementation of the Employment Roadmap, along with ensuring employment and maintaining the economic activity of the population, will create additional jobs, as well as conditions for the development of infrastructure in settlements.
Particular attention will be paid to promoting the employment of target population groups as well as the employment of women. An increase in the number of social jobs will be an alternative to public works, by maximizing the involvement of recipients of targeted social assistance in social jobs, which will serve to increase the level of family income. It is envisaged to expand the interaction of employment agencies with non-governmental organizations in the field of promoting employment, the use of tripartite commissions of social partnership as one of the mechanisms to overcome unemployment.
The state policy in the field of social security will be focused on optimizing social assistance through strengthening its targeted nature.
Work will continue to support low-income and large citizens.
It is planned to introduce in 2021 a unified portal of social services, which will allow people with disabilities to independently, online, purchase auxiliary, compensatory aids and social services, taking into account their individual needs.
It is planned to open the Zhanya center for socially vulnerable families in order to provide social support to get out of a difficult life situation, as well as improve the quality of life, the construction of a rehabilitation center for 150 places for persons with disabilities and for children who are registered with dispensaries, stay for 100 places for people with special needs.
Also, together with NPP Atameken, work will continue to involve mothers with many children in micro and small businesses, including at home.
Measures will continue to increase the affordability of housing, especially for socially vulnerable groups of the population. The implementation of the Bakytty Otbasy program will continue with a reduced rate of 2% and an initial payment of 10%.
In 2021-2025, the rate of economic growth will depend on external and internal factors.
The situation in the world financial markets is an external factor contributing to the slowdown / growth of the regional economy.
Internal factors constraining economic growth rates include:
high wear and tear of equipment in the manufacturing industry;
disproportion in industry in favor of the oil and gas complex;
low demand for products of domestic producers;
deterioration of existing engineering networks;
low level of technical condition of highways.
In 2021-2025, the dynamics of the socio-economic development of the region will be characterized by moderate growth rates against the background of a gradual recovery in demand, an increase in investment in infrastructure and population consumption, while maintaining low prices for raw materials.
Economic growth in 2021-2025 will be mainly based on domestic demand with a focus on increasing investments in industrial and infrastructure projects at the expense of private and public funds.
In 2021, compared to the 2020 estimate, the gross regional product will be 100.5%, in 2025 it will increase by an average of 5.9%.
Investment will be a significant factor in sustaining economic growth. Investments in the implementation of large industrial and infrastructure projects will increase the contribution of investments to the dynamics of domestic demand.
Annually, about 500.0 billion tenge of investments will be directed to the development of the economy, in 2021 the volume of investments will exceed the estimate of 2020 by 1.1%, in 2025 - by 14.0%.
The volume of industrial production in 2021 relative to the 2020 estimate will be 100.3%, by 2025 it will increase by an average of 2.7%.
In 2021, natural gas production is projected at 20.2 billion cubic meters. m, gas condensate - 12.1 million tons, in 2025 - 20.7 billion cubic meters. m and 12.5 million tons, respectively. Mining production in 2025 is projected at 100.2%.
In 2021, the volume of production in the manufacturing industry will exceed the 2020 estimate by 3%, in 2025 - by 18.2%.
The volume of gross agricultural production in 2021 will increase by 3.5% compared to the 2020 estimate, and by 20.3% in 2025.
In crop production, the gross grain harvest in 2025 is projected at 260.2 thousand tons or 100.1% by the estimate of 2020, 94.6 thousand tons of oilseeds will be produced and an increase of 5.1%.
In livestock production, an increase in the number of cattle is projected in 2025 compared to the 2020 estimate by 11.6%, sheep - by 3.4%, goats - by 1.8%, pigs - by 11.2%, horses - by 13, 9%, birds - by 11.9%.
Production of livestock and poultry meat (in carcass weight) in 2025 will increase by 23.4% compared to the 2020 estimate and will amount to 66.0 thousand tons, milk - by 10.5% (266.4 thousand tons), eggs - by 19.3% (222.2 million pieces).
The projected production volumes will fully meet the needs of the region and increase the export of agricultural products.
In 2021, the volume of transportation of goods and passengers will exceed the 2020 estimate by 6.6% and 2 times, in 2025 - by 16.6% and 2.1 times, respectively.
In 2021, the volume of retail turnover will exceed the 2020 estimate by 0.5%, in 2025 - by 9.6%.
The volume of construction work in 2021 will increase by 1.5% by 2020, and by 12.6% in 2025.
In housing construction for five years, it is planned to enter 3068.7 thousand square meters. meters of housing from all sources of funding.
If the existing socio-demographic conditions are preserved, the population of the region in 2025 will be 680.8 thousand people, including the economically active population - 339.6 thousand people.
According to forecast data, the number of people employed in the economy in 2025 will increase to 323.0 thousand people, the number of unemployed will be 16.6 thousand people. The implementation of the Employment Roadmap along with employment provision will ensure the unemployment rate within 4.9%.
Pursuing a policy of maintaining economic growth as a priority involves improving the quality and social standards of living of the population. In 2025, compared with the 2020 estimate, it is predicted: an increase in the estimated average life expectancy of the population from 73.2 to 74.4 years; a decrease in the mortality rate by 1.2%, infant mortality by 4.4%, maternal mortality by 1.9%, the incidence of tuberculosis by 1.1%, and the death rate from cancer by 1.0%. In education, it is planned to preserve the coverage of children from 3 to 6 years of age with preschool education at the level of 100%, an increase in the number of children covered by preschool education by 11.7%, enrolled in educational institutions of technical and vocational education by 2.2%.
5.1. Forecast of budget parameters for a three-year period
The forecast of income receipts for a three-year period is determined on the basis of the current budget and tax legislation of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
Regional budget revenues million tenge
|
Indicators |
2020 г. |
2021 г. |
2022 г. |
2023 г. |
|
estimate |
forecast |
|||
|
Income (excluding transfers) |
100 629,6 |
101 730,7 |
105 912,0 |
105 714,4 |
|
tax revenues |
93 947,5 |
99 759,2 |
103 961,8 |
104 057,1 |
|
non-tax receipts |
900,4 |
1 013,2 |
972,5 |
863,4 |
|
proceeds from sale |
5 781,7 |
958,3 |
977,7 |
793,9 |
Taking into account the expected external conditions for the development of the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the forecast of macroeconomic indicators for 2021–2023, the regional budget revenues (excluding transfers) are projected to grow from 101.7 billion tenge in 2021 to 105.7 billion tenge in 2022.
The growth of budget revenues will mainly be provided by an increase in tax revenues, which account for 98.5% of the state budget revenues.
According to forecasts, the growth rate of tax revenues compared to the previous year will be 104.1% in 2021, 104.2% in 2022, and 100% in 2023.
The increase in personal income tax and social tax receipts will be ensured by an increase in the wage bill in sectors against the background of economic growth as a whole.
When the situation in the world and Kazakhstani economies changes, prompt and flexible measures will be taken to adjust the budgetary policy, including by clarifying the budget parameters.
The spending policy pursued in the medium term will be aimed at implementing the priority areas of social and economic policy, increasing the efficiency of budget expenditures with their focus on final results.
Budget expenditures of the region, taking into account the projected volumes of budgetary subventions from the republican budget, are projected in 2021 - 177.1 billion tenge, in 2022 - 181.8 billion tenge, in 2023 - 186.3 billion tenge.
The forecast of the parameters of the regional budget for 2021-2023 is given in Appendix 3.
5.2. Interbudgetary relations
Within the framework of inter-budgetary relations, measures will be taken to increase the independence of local executive bodies in resolving issues of regional and local importance.
The main goal of the policy of interbudgetary relations in the medium term is to ensure equal fiscal opportunities for the regions in providing the population with budgetary services guaranteed by the Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan and legislation.
Interbudgetary relations are based on transfers of a general nature (subventions and withdrawals), approved by the Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan "On the volume of transfers of a general nature between the republican and local budgets for 2020-2022" No. 275-V ЗРК dated December 4, 2019.
General transfers will remain stable over the three-year period.
In the event of losses in income or additional expenditures of the budgets of districts and cities associated with the adoption of regulatory legal acts, the losses of local executive bodies (hereinafter - LEB) will be compensated from the regional budget through the allocation of targeted transfers and (or) changes in the norms for regulated taxes.
At the same time, in order to stimulate regional economies, develop small and medium-sized businesses and increase revenues of local budgets, starting from 2020, corporate income tax revenues from small and medium-sized businesses have been transferred to local budgets.
The volumes of general transfers for 2021 - 2023 are calculated taking into account the corporate income tax from small and medium-sized businesses.
5.3. Local budget spending priorities
Taking into account the tasks of social and economic development, the following priorities of budget expenditures in the medium term have been determined:
fulfillment of state social obligations in full;
ensuring employment of the population;
development of the education and health care system;
events in the field of culture, sports, tourism;
environmental protection;
water supply and gasification of settlements;
development of transport and logistics infrastructure;
provision of affordable housing;
infrastructure development and industrial and innovative development;
development of the agricultural sector and support for small and medium-sized businesses;
ensuring law and order in the region.
In accordance with the "Plan of the Nation - 100 Concrete Steps" for the implementation of five institutional reforms, from 2020, the 4th level of an independent budget of local self-government has been introduced at the level of a rural district, village, township and city of district significance in administrative territorial everywhere.
Thus, the main priority in planning expenditures is the well-being of citizens, namely, their social support, health and education, improving living conditions, as well as creating conditions for ensuring employment of the population.
5.4. New spending initiatives targeting socio-economic development priorities
In order to ensure economic growth, the main expenditure priorities of the draft budget for 2021-2023 are:
- development of the agricultural sector;
- industrialization within the framework of the State Program of Industrial and Innovative Development for 2020-2025;
- development of small and medium-sized businesses within the framework of the State Program for Support and Development of Business "Business Road Map-2025";
- development of transport infrastructure through further implementation
Nurly Zhol state programs;
- implementation of measures within the framework of the Nurly Zher housing construction program
- introduction of compulsory social health insurance;
- in the field of education - the construction of new facilities for the liquidation of emergency schools and three-shift training.
5.5. Main priorities of the budgetary investment policy for the three-year period
Taking into account the tasks of social and economic development, the main priorities of the budget investment policy for 2021–2023 will be:
- water supply for rural settlements;
- gasification of rural settlements;
- construction of housing and development of engineering and communication infrastructure;
- construction, reconstruction, repair of highways;
- modernization of the infrastructure of housing and communal services, water and heat supply networks, wastewater disposal;
- construction of social facilities (education, healthcare, culture, sports, social protection of the population, etc.)
- construction and repair of environmental protection facilities.