Change in business activity of enterprises in industry, trade and construction in the IV quarter of 2022
In the IV quarter of 2022, compared to the III quarter of 2022, the heads of industrial enterprises noted increase in output in physical terms. Demand for finished products slightly increased. Thus, in the IV quarter of 2022, compared to the previous quarter, the demand for finished products remained at the same level. Thus, in the IV quarter of 2022 balance of changes in demand was 3%, the balance of estimates of changes in output 7% (in III quarter 2022, 3% and 2%, respectively).
The business confidence index, which characterizes the business activity of industrial enterprises, obtained from the results of a questionnaire survey in the IV quarter of 2022, decreased and amounted to 2%. At the same time, 69% of industrial enterprises expect the financial and economic activity to remain unchanged compared to the current moment, 12% - improvement and 10% - deterioration.
According to a survey of trade enterprises in the IV quarter of 2022 compared to the III quarter of 2022, consumer demand remained unchanged. The balance of demand change estimates in the IV quarter 2022 decrease compared to the previous quarter and amounted to -7% (in the III quarter of 2022 -4%), the balance of changes in estimates of the volume of trade remained at the level and 0%.
The business confidence index, which characterizes the business activity of trade enterprises, obtained from the results of a questionnaire survey conducted in the IV quarter of 2022, amounted to -9%. Such a significant decrease was influenced by demand and the instability of the economic situation.
More than half of trade enterprises 62% expect the financial and economic activity to remain unchanged compared to the current moment, 10% - improvement and 15% - deterioration.
In the IV quarter of 2022, compared to the III quarter of 2022, the heads of construction enterprises noted a worsened in the economic situation. Thus, the balance of changes in the estimates of the portfolio of orders decrease compared to the previous quarter and amounted to -8%. The balance of estimates of changes in the physical volume of work performed decrease from 2% to -8%.
The business confidence index, which characterizes the business activity of construction enterprises, obtained from the results of a questionnaire survey in the IV quarter of 2022, changed and amounted to -2%.
67% of construction companies expect the financial and economic activity to remain unchanged compared to the current moment, 8% - improvement and 17% - deterioration.
Methodological explanations
The business confidence index of industry enterprises is calculated as an average of the “balances” of assessments of the level of formed factual demand and stock of finished products (the latter – with a reverse sign) as well as expected changes of production output, in percent.
The business confidence index of trade enterprises is calculated as an average of the “balances”of assessments of the level of formed factual economic situation and warehouse stores (the latter – with the reverse sign)as well as expected changes of economic situation, in percent.
The business confidence index of construction enterprises is calculated as an average of the “balances”of assessments of the level of formed factual of the portfolio of orders, and the expected change in the number of people employed in organizations, in percent. The balance implies the difference between the proportions of respondents who noted “increase” and “decrease” of a particular indicator of economic activity of a surveyed enterprise, in percent.