Change in business activity of enterprises in industry, trade and construction in the III quarter of 2022
In the III quarter of 2022, compared to the II quarter of 2022, the heads of industrial enterprises noted decrease in output in physical terms. Demand for finished products slightly increased. Thus, in the III quarter of 2022, compared to the previous quarter, the balance of estimates of changes in demand amounted to 3%, the balance of estimates of changes in output 2% (in II quarter 2022, 2% and 5%, respectively).
The business confidence index, which characterizes the business activity of industrial enterprises, obtained from the results of a questionnaire survey in the III quarter of 2022, decreased and amounted to 5%. At the same time, 69% of industrial enterprises expect the financial and economic activity to remain unchanged compared to the current moment, 13% - improvement and 9% - deterioration.
According to a survey of trade enterprises in the III quarter of 2022 compared to the II quarter of 2022, consumer demand remained unchanged. The balance of demand change estimates in the III quarter 2022 decrease compared to the previous quarter and amounted to -4% (in the II quarter of 2022 -4%), the balance of changes in estimates of the volume of trade decrease from -1% to 0%.
The business confidence index, which characterizes the business activity of trade enterprises, obtained from the results of a questionnaire survey conducted in the III quarter of 2022, amounted to -2%. Such a significant decrease was influenced by demand and the instability of the economic situation.
More than half of trade enterprises 61% expect the financial and economic activity to remain unchanged compared to the current moment, 14% - improvement and 11% - deterioration.
In the III quarter of 2022, compared to the II quarter of 2022, the heads of construction enterprises noted a worsened in the economic situation. Thus, the balance of changes in the estimates of the portfolio of orders decrease compared to the previous quarter and amounted to 2%. The balance of estimates of changes in the physical volume of work performed decrease from 7% to 2%.
The business confidence index, which characterizes the business activity of construction enterprises, obtained from the results of a questionnaire survey in the II quarter of 2022, changed and amounted to (-4%).
67% of construction companies expect the financial and economic activity to remain unchanged compared to the current moment, 9% - improvement and 11% - deterioration.
Methodological explanations
The business confidence index of industry enterprises is calculated as an average of the “balances” of assessments of the level of formed factual demand and stock of finished products (the latter – with a reverse sign) as well as expected changes of production output, in percent.
The business confidence index of trade enterprises is calculated as an average of the “balances”of assessments of the level of formed factual economic situation and warehouse stores (the latter – with the reverse sign)as well as expected changes of economic situation, in percent.
The business confidence index of construction enterprises is calculated as an average of the “balances”of assessments of the level of formed factual of the portfolio of orders, and the expected change in the number of people employed in organizations, in percent. The balance implies the difference between the proportions of respondents who noted “increase” and “decrease” of a particular indicator of economic activity of a surveyed enterprise, in percent.