Change in business activity of enterprises in industry, trade and construction in the II quarter of 2022
In the II quarter of 2022, compared to the I quarter of 2022, the heads of industrial enterprises noted an increase in output in physical terms, due to an increase in demand for finished products. Thus, in the II quarter of 2022, compared to the previous quarter, the balance of estimates of changes in demand amounted to 2%, the balance of estimates of changes in output 5% (in I quarter 2022, -7% and -10%, respectively).
The business confidence index, which characterizes the business activity of industrial enterprises, obtained from the results of a questionnaire survey in the II quarter of 2022, increased and amounted to 7%. At the same time, 68% of industrial enterprises expect the financial and economic activity to remain unchanged compared to the current moment, 15% - improvement and 8% - deterioration.
According to a survey of trade enterprises in the II quarter of 2022 compared to the I quarter of 2022, there is an improvement in business activity associated with an increase consumer demand. The balance of demand change estimates in the II quarter 2022 increased compared to the previous quarter and amounted to -4% (in the I quarter of 2022 -20%), the balance of changes in estimates of the volume of trade increased from -22% to 1%.
The business confidence index, which characterizes the business activity of trade enterprises, obtained from the results of a questionnaire survey conducted in the II quarter of 2022, amounted to -1%. Such a significant increase was influenced by: demand, stocks in retail chains and the overall stability of the economic situation.
More than half of trade enterprises 61% expect the financial and economic activity to remain unchanged compared to the current moment, 14% - improvement and 11% - deterioration.
In the II quarter of 2022, compared to the I quarter of 2022, the heads of construction enterprises noted a improvement in the economic situation. Thus, the balance of changes in the estimates of the portfolio of orders increased compared to the previous quarter and amounted to 6%. The balance of estimates of changes in the physical volume of work performed increased from -29% to 7%.
The business confidence index, which characterizes the business activity of construction enterprises, obtained from the results of a questionnaire survey in the II quarter of 2022, did not change and amounted to 0%.
66% of construction companies expect the financial and economic activity to remain unchanged compared to the current moment, 15% - improvement and 5% - deterioration.
Methodological explanations
The business confidence index of industry enterprises is calculated as an average of the “balances” of assessments of the level of formed factual demand and stock of finished products (the latter – with a reverse sign) as well as expected changes of production output, in percent.
The business confidence index of trade enterprises is calculated as an average of the “balances”of assessments of the level of formed factual economic situation and warehouse stores (the latter – with the reverse sign)as well as expected changes of economic situation, in percent.
The business confidence index of construction enterprises is calculated as an average of the “balances”of assessments of the level of formed factual of the portfolio of orders, and the expected change in the number of people employed in organizations, in percent. The balance implies the difference between the proportions of respondents who noted “increase” and “decrease” of a particular indicator of economic activity of a surveyed enterprise, in percent.