Change in business activity of enterprises in industry, trade and construction in the I quarter of 2022

In the I quarter of 2022, compared to the IV quarter of 2021, the heads of industrial enterprises noted a decrease in output in physical terms, due to a decrease in demand for finished products. Thus, in the I quarter of 2022, compared to the previous quarter, the balance of estimates of changes in demand amounted to -7%, the balance of estimates of changes in output -10% (in IV quarter 2021, 4% and 8%, respectively).

The business confidence index, which characterizes the business activity of industrial enterprises, obtained from the results of a questionnaire survey in the I quarter of 2022, slightly increased and amounted to 2%. At the same time, 68% of industrial enterprises expect the financial and economic activity to remain unchanged compared to the current moment, 15% - improvement and 10% - deterioration.

According to a survey of trade enterprises in the I quarter of 2022 compared to the IV quarter of 2021, there is a decrease in consumer demand and business activity. The balance of demand change estimates in I quarter 2022 decreased compared to the previous quarter and amounted to -20% (in the IV quarter of 2021 -4%), the balance of changes in estimates of the volume of trade decreased from 0% to -22%.

The business confidence index, which characterizes the business activity of trade enterprises, obtained from the results of a questionnaire survey conducted in the I quarter of 2022, amounted to -13%. Such a significant decline was influenced by: demand, stocks in retail chains and, in general, the instability of the economic situation.

More than half of trade enterprises 55% expect the financial and economic activity to remain unchanged compared to the current moment, 17% - improvement and 14% - deterioration.

In the I quarter of 2022, compared to the IV quarter of 2021, the heads of construction enterprises noted a deterioration in the economic situation. Thus, the balance of changes in the estimates of the portfolio of orders decreased compared to the previous quarter and amounted to -12%. The balance of estimates of changes in the physical volume of work performed decreased from -6% to -29%.

The business confidence index, which characterizes the business activity of construction enterprises, obtained from the results of a questionnaire survey in the I quarter of 2022, increased slightly and amounted to 0%.

58% of construction companies expect the financial and economic activity to remain unchanged compared to the current moment, 18% - improvement and 9% - deterioration.

Methodological explanations

The business confidence index of industry enterprises is calculated as an average of the “balances” of assessments of the level of formed factual demand and stock of finished products (the latter – with a reverse sign) as well as expected changes of production output, in percent.

The business confidence index of trade enterprises is calculated as an average of the “balances”of assessments of the level of formed factual economic situation and warehouse stores (the latter – with the reverse sign)as well as expected changes of economic situation, in percent.

The business confidence index of construction enterprises is calculated as an average of the “balances”of assessments of the level of formed factual of the portfolio of orders, and the expected change in the number of people employed in organizations, in percent. The balance implies the difference between the proportions of respondents who noted “increase” and “decrease” of a particular indicator of economic activity of a surveyed enterprise, in percent.

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